Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves

2022 The Cryosphere, 16 (7), 2655-2669

Kittel, C., Amory, C., Hofer, S., Agosta, C., Jourdain, N. C., Gilbert, E., Le Toumelin, L., Vignon, É., Gallée, H., & Fettweis, X.

Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves — Figure: Relationship between temperature anomalies and longwave radiation (a), water vapor (b), and cloud optical depth (c), illustrating how cloud properties drive melting variations.

Research Summary

We investigated why different climate models disagree on the amount of future Antarctic melt. The answer lies in the clouds: the way models represent cloud phase (liquid vs ice) and their radiative effects (the 'blanket' effect) explains most of the spread in projections. MAR shows that liquid-containing clouds significantly amplify surface warming.

Key Takeaway

"Cloud-radiative properties are the primary source of uncertainty in predicting the future collapse of Antarctic ice shelves."

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