Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years

2025 The Cryosphere, 19 (10), 4459-4469

Delhasse, A.* , Kittel, C.* , & Beckmann, J.

Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years
Figure: Evolution of Greenland's contribution to sea level (a), SMB (b), runoff (c), albedo (d), refreezing (e),and sea level (f) up to 2200 under various warming-threshold scenarios.

Research Summary

Beyond 2100, the Greenland Ice Sheet enters a new regime. We explored scenarios over 200 years, showing that even if warming stabilizes, the 'melt-elevation feedback' can trigger irreversible mass loss. This work emphasizes that current 2100 targets might hide the long-term commitment of ice sheet retreat.

Key Takeaway

"Atmospheric warming thresholds are likely to be exceeded long-term, leading to a sustained and accelerating contribution to sea-level rise."